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The water investment universe

China’s water pollution and scarcity issues create considerable risks and opportunities for both investors in China’s water sector and for companies with significant water exposure. There is greater clarity around the Chinese water sector, because of an increase in availability of information and interest from the investment community. There is still however little transparency when it comes to assessing industrial water-related risks. Investor interest has to a certain extent driven information, and as one of Asia Water Project’s advisors, IDFC Capital managing director Melissa Brown, explains investors have grasped the obvious opportunities in the water sector, but have not yet focused on the larger water-related risks of a nation grappling with water shortage. “China-focused investors have chosen to buy into a remarkably one-dimensional version of the investment picture,” states Brown, “by focusing on a small universe of so-called ’solution providers’ with little realistic understanding of the broad-based competitive impacts of the water policy challenge.”

The lack of transparency has been a long-standing concern for responsible investors, who appreciate the opportunities in China’s growing market offers but are cautious of the landmines that come with unknown terrain. And in the absence of meaningful regulations to encourage reporting on environmental issues, combined with the pressure for short-term profit, when Chinese companies do disclose, their reports often fail to cover potential material risks and do not facilitate in-depth investor analysis. For more discussion on corporate disclosure trends in China, click here.

For industrial water-intensive users, business risks can translate into risks to earnings from events such as unforecasted compensation payments following pollution incidents, increased cash flow volatility (such as when a plant suspends production from lack of water) and ’soft’ payments to local officials to approve plant construction or increased costs of water treatment from upstream discharges. We draw attention to the well-publicised case of Fountainset, and as recently as January 2010, the Chinese government fined a Zhejiang-based pharmaceutical company RMB 2.2 million ($322,200) for dumping more than 1,000 barrels of unprocessed, noxious waste in neighboring Anhui province in December 2009. According to a China Daily report1, the chemical waste contains dichloromethane methanol and methane, which are categorized as hazardous waste chemicals under national regulations in China.

Acknowledging the complexity of China’s political landscape, an evolving regulatory framework, increasing water tariffs, and the growing number of public protests triggered by water pollution, experts advise that the only way for investors to navigate China’s rough waters is to actively engage companies in dialogue.

As the website develops, topics to be addressed will include:

  • Investor due diligence and risk assessment;
  • Trends in socially Responsible Investing: Water;
  • Shareholder activism; and
  • Technology.

For related reading, click here

 

Opportunities build as Government addresses water scarcity

  • With China’s stimulus package and its free-rein domestic credit for environmental projects, experts predict a surge in water-related infrastructure beginning in 2010 and continuing for the next five years. According to Nomura1, listed water utilities and environmental protection operators will benefit from the positive outlook painted by the RMB 4 trillion stimulus package, as local governments fast-track project approvals for operations in wastewater treatment, water supply and waste incineration.
  • CLSA, a leading investment brokerage firm headquartered in Hong Kong, states that Beijing has assigned more than RMB 75billion in the soon-to-be-announced 12th five-year plan for 2011 to 2015 to build sewage treatment plants to improve water quality2.
  • According to the Global Water Intelligence, the China Guodian Corporation (CGC), a major electricity company, has recently bought into the Chinese wastewater market, through a USD 102 million acquisition of state-owned Shenyang Zhenxing Environmental Protection Company (SZEP). SZEP is no small fish– it is the biggest wastewater company in northeast China, serving the provinces of Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin, with revenues of USD 29 million in 2008. Experts believe that this deal is an indication of the viability of the Chinese wastewater sector. By the end of 2009, the average domestic wastewater treatment tariff throughout China was $0.10/m3, with the government projecting an increase to $0.12/m3. This represents an average potential revenue growth opportunity of 20%, lucrative enough to lure in new players and build a real industry3.

1 Nomura International (Hong Kong Limited), “China Water,” February 2009.

2 CLSA, “Thirsty Asia2,” January 2010.

3Global Water Intelligence, Chinese wastewater acquisition, February 2010.

1 China Daily, “Drug Firm Made To Pay For Pollution,” January 13, 2010.